From 2014 to 2019, Cisco anticipates that global mobile traffic growth will outpace global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three.
Some highlights from the Cisco study:
- More mobile users: By 2019, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2014). In 2014, nearly 59 percent of the world’s population (7.2 billion people) was comprised of mobile users; by 2019, more than 69 percent of the world’s population (7.6 billion people) will be mobile users.
- More mobile connections: By 2019, there will be approximately 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices/connections, including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections (up from 7.4 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2014).
- Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase 2.4 fold from 2014 (1.7 Mbps) to 2019 (4.0 Mbps).
- More mobile video: By 2019, mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 55 percent in 2014).
Impact of Mobile M2M Connections (and Wearable Devices)
- The number of wearable devices globally will grow five-fold, reaching 578 million by 2019, up from 109 million in 2014, with the majority of devices anticipated in North America and Asia Pacific.
- This is expected to fuel 18-fold growth in mobile traffic from wearable devices between 2014 and 2019, with most of it channeled through smartphones.
- In 2014, the average wearable device generated 6X more traffic per month than a basic handset (wearables = 141 MBs mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MBs mobile traffic/month).
- As an example of a high-end wearables use case, livestreaming of a GoPro video camera on a cellular network would generate about 5 MB of mobile data traffic per minute.
- In 2014, the average M2M module generated three-times more traffic per month than a basic handset (M2M = 70 MB of mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MB of mobile traffic/month).
Increase in 4G Connectivity
- 26 percent of all global devices and connections will be 4G capable by 2019.
- The number of 4G connections globally will grow 18-fold, from 459 million in 2019 to 3 billion by 2019.
- By 2017, 3G will surpass 2G as the top cellular technology based on connection share.
- In 2014, 4G connections accounted for 40 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, 4G connections will account for 68 percent of total mobile data traffic.
- In 2014, the average 4G connection generated 2.2 GB of mobile data traffic per month; by 2019, the average 4G connection will generate 5.5 GB of mobile data traffic per month, 5.3X higher than the 1.04 GB/month for the average non-4G connection.
Wi-Fi Offload Traffic Surpasses Cellular Traffic
- In 2014, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2019, 54 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
- Without offload, the 2014 – 2019 global mobile data traffic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global mobile data traffic would be significantly higher (65 percent instead of 57 percent).
Voice-over-Wi-Fi (VoWi-Fi) Surpasses Voice-over-LTE (VoLTE)
- By 2017, VoWi-Fi traffic (10.8 PB/year) will exceed VoLTE traffic (10.7 PB/year).
- By 2018, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoLTE in the number of minutes used per year.
- By 2019, VoWi-Fi minutes of use will account for more than half – 53 percent – of all mobile IP voice traffic.
- By 2019, the number of Wi-Fi-capable tablets and PCs (1.9 billion) will be nearly 3.5-times the number of cellular-capable tablets and PCs (542 million).
Growth of Mobile Cloud Traffic
- Mobile cloud traffic will grow nearly 11-fold from 2014 (2 exabytes/month) to 2019 (21.8 exabytes/month).
- In 2014, cloud applications accounted for 81 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, cloud applications will account for 90 percent of total mobile data traffic.
http://newsroom.cisco.com/press-release-content?type=webcontent&articleId=1578507