Cisco is now predicting that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013 driven by expanded usage of interactive media, and the explosion of video content across multiple devices. This would put the total IP traffic volume at 667 Exabytes per year or 56 exabytes per month — the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs worth of data per month traversing networks. The newly updated study, called the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast and Methodology, 2008-2013, is based on Cisco analysis and modeling of independent analysts’ forecasts. It includes traffic estimates for the public Internet, private IP backbones, IPTV services, IP-enable VOD services, mobile Internet traffic and “ambient video”, such as security cameras, that are becoming IP-enabled. The Cisco study is an on-going initiative with updates approximately every six months.
Some interesting highlights from the report:
- IP traffic in North America will reach 13 exabytes per month by 2013, slightly ahead of Western Europe, which will reach 12.5 exabytes per month, and behind Asia Pacific (AsiaPac), where IP traffic will reach 21 exabytes per month. Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 4.1 billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 16.5 exabytes per month. IP traffic in Japan will reach 3 exabytes per month by 2013 at a CAGR of 37 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Japan will generate half a billion DVDs worth of traffic, or 2 exabytes per month.
- Middle East and Africa will grow the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of 51 percent, reaching 1 exabyte per month in 2013.
- By 2013, the sum of all forms of video (TV, VoD, Internet video, and P2P) will exceed 90 percent of global consumer IP traffic
- Video communications traffic (video over instant messaging, video calls) will increase 10-fold from 2008 to 2013
- Mobile data traffic will roughly double each year from 2008 to 2013, increasing 66 times between 2008 and 2013.
- Almost 64 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video in 2013. (Mobile video is the fastest-growing application category measured within the Cisco VNI.)
- Consumer Hyperconnectivity, (which includes active digital multitasking and passive networking), increases the “digital day” as IP networks support more and more tasks and functions simultaneously from a host of networked devices (e.g. TV, PC, mobile device, et al.)
- By 2013, active digital multitasking, such as listening to online music while working online or web browsing/instant messaging while talking on the phone, will add six “network hours” to each day
- By 2013, passive networking, such as DVR recording while watching other network programming, online storage backups conducted in the background of user experiences, or ambient video from such devices as a security or nanny-cam, will add another six “network hours” to each day
- By 2013 the surface area of the world’s digital screens will be nearly 11 billion square feet (1 billion square meters), or the equivalent of 2 billion large-screen TVs. Together, this amount would be more than 15 times the surface area of Manhattan. If laid end-to-end, these screens would circle the globe more than 48 times.
- Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 33 percent from 2008 to 2013. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of four between 2008 and 2013.
- Business IP WAN traffic will grow at a faster pace than business Internet. Today, total business Internet traffic is more than twice the volume of IP WAN. By 2013, however, video will have made its way onto the WAN, and intercompany WANs will have matured, so that IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 36 percent, compared to a CAGR of 32 percent for business Internet.
Further data is posted online. Cisco is also offering a free VNI forecast widget that permits customized views of the growth of various types of network traffichttp://www.cisco.com