Corning Optical Fiber estimates that the total worldwide fiber market was approximately 55 million fiber kilometers last year, representing an overall decrease of approximately 50% compared to 2001. In its annual overview of the fiber and photonics industry, Corning issued the following fiber market assessments:
- North America, which accounted for 25% of the total worldwide fiber demand, declined by approximately 65%;
- Western Europe, representing 10% of the worldwide demand, declined by approximately 75%;
- Japan, representing 30% of the worldwide demand, decreased by nearly 10%;
- “Other Asia,” which represented 30% of the worldwide demand, decreased by about 35%;
- Latin America and “Rest of World,” which comprised 5% of the worldwide demand, declined by approximately 70%.
- Long-haul terrestrial/submarine fiber, accounting for 10% of the total worldwide demand, showed a decline of approximately 70%,
- metro fiber, representing 45% of the total worldwide demand, decreased by approximately 50%;
- access fiber , representing 40% of the total worldwide demand, showed a decrease of about 45%;
- and premises fiber, accounting for 5% of the total worldwide demand, decreased by 25%.
When the market is analyzed by application category rather than by geography, Corning’s estimated rates of decline for 2002 are as follows:
Corning expects little change in the worldwide fiber market for 2003.
As for the worldwide market for photonic components and modules, Corning estimates that, after nearly 50% growth in 2000, optical system spending, which includes WDM and SONET/SDH equipment, declined by approximately 60% in 2002, largely due to a 74% decline in optical system spending in North America. Corning expects the DWDM system market to decline a further 15-25%.
Nevertheless, Corning predicts that bandwidth demand will continue to grow at 60-80% annually through 2006. It continues to believe that the world’s networks are still in the early stages of a long-term technology substitution from copper to fiber. Another positive note for Corning: in the recent FCC UNE Triennial Review, ILECs were relieved from unbundling requirement for new and overbuilt FTTH deployments.
A webcast is available online.
http://www.shareholder.com/corning/presentations3-25-03.cfm
- Corning’ State of the Industry presentation for 2002 https://convergedigest.comDWDM/dwdmarticle.asp?ID=2929