The Optical Transport market, largely driven by WDM equipment, is forecasted to increase in size annually for the next five years, reaching nearly $18 billion, according to Dell’Oro Group’s Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report. The top number is unchanged from Dell’Oro’s earlier forecast, however, the outlook is lower for WDM Metro since the coherent 400 Gbps ZR (400ZR) pluggable optics are now available and “interest in using them in an IPoDWDM architecture seems high.”
Some highlights:
- demand for coherent ZR optical pluggables is expected to reach a material amount in 2022, starting with 400ZR. Demand is expected to be high with Internet content providers (ICPs), driving a very high percentage growth rate for the next few years.
- 800ZR is expected to enter the market a few years later.
- the ZR pluggable optics market will surpass $500 million in annual sales by 2025.
- Demand for 800 Gbps-capable line cards, first introduced in early 2020, has rapidly increased, demonstrating a strong rate of adoption as well as the market’s continued desire for higher performance DWDM transponder cards.
- The next wavelength speed following 800 Gbps will be 1200 Gbps (1.2 Tbps).
- Dell’Oro anticipates that 1.2 Tbps-capable line cards could enter the market before the end of 2023.
- Dell’Oro forecasts that by 2025 about one-third of all coherent wavelength shipments will be from a line card capable of transmitting a signal at a speed of 800 Gbps or higher.
5-Year Forecast: Optical Transport Market Reaches $18 Billion by 2025