Private wireless revenues remain small relative to total RAN investments, but year-over-year growth is on the uptick, according to a recent report from Dell’Oro Group. Preliminary readings suggest that total private wireless RAN revenues, including traditional private wide-area macro and small cells, increased by around 60 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in the second quarter. This growth was underpinned by positive trends from both established and smaller RAN suppliers.
“As is the case with most new shiny objects, there is an initial period of excessive hype and anticipation that results in a mismatch between expectations and reality,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “After multiple adjustments, the industry is now coming to terms with the fact that private wireless is a marathon, not a sprint. With both the suppliers and the operators adjusting their near-term expectations, the industry is now more aligned and in a better position to meet these revised growth objectives. The results in the second quarter clearly show that the private wireless market is moving in the right direction,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the July 2023 Private Wireless Report:
- Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers for the 3Q 2022 to 2Q 2023 period include Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson.
- Top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers outside of China for the 3Q 2022 to 2Q 2023 period include Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.
- The high-level message that we have communicated for some time has not changed—private wireless is a massive opportunity, but it will take some time for private wireless to impact the broader public plus private RAN market.
- Following multiple downward forecast revisions over the past year, we did not make any material changes this time around to the forecast or the mix between public and private investments. Total private wireless RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 24 percent CAGR between 2022 and 2027, while public RAN revenues are set to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the same time period.
- The underlying technology mix has also not changed. 5G is dominating in China, while LTE is currently dominating outside of China. Private 5G RAN revenues are projected to exceed $1 billion by 2027.