Dell’Oro Group is forecasting that the RAN market will grow at a healthy pace over the next three years, before growth tapers off in the outer part of the forecast period, resulting in a mid-single digit CAGR between 2018 and 2022. Cumulative investments over the 2019-2024 period are expected to eclipse $200 billion.
Some highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-Year RAN Forecast:
- The Millimeter Wave outlook has been revised upward driven by improved momentum in the Asia Pacific region.
- The pickup in mid-band deployments has propelled the demand for Massive MIMO. In this forecast, 5G NR Massive MIMO is projected to comprise more than half of the cumulative 5G NR capex.
- The underlying assumptions driving the regional projections remain fairly unchanged, with the APAC region being the main near-term growth vehicle.
- With more clarity about the 5G rollout plans in the North America region, we have adjusted the near-term outlook upward and now forecast the North American RAN market to continue advancing over the near-term.
- Global macro base station (BTS) shipments are projected to remain elevated between 2020 and 2022, underpinning projections that 5G activity is set for an upturn. This positive momentum will eventually slow, resulting in some softness in the outer part of the forecast period.
- The high level small cell vision has not changed. We expect unlicensed WiFi systems to coexist with cellular technologies. For upper mid-band deployments, operators will need to accelerate indoor deployments rapidly while the sub 6 GHz micro adoption phase will be more gradual.
- Since the last forecast, we have adjusted the outdoor small cell outlook upward, driven primarily by a more favorable Millimeter Wave forecast.
- Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Radio Access Network (RAN) investments, including mobile network and dedicated fixed networks, are projected to comprise a growing share of the overall RAN capex envelope over the next five years, reflecting the size of the potential upside, various technology advancements, and improving market sentiment for both basic and high performance connectivity
https://www.delloro.com/news/radio-access-network-investments-to-surpass-0-2-trillion/