Preliminary findings reveal that Radio Access Network (RAN) market conditions are slowly improving but remain challenging as regional imbalances still weigh on the market, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group. Initial calculations show that the overall RAN market—including baseband plus radio hardware and software, excluding services—declined in 3Q24, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year (Y/Y) revenue decline.
“Tougher comparisons, excess capacity, monetization challenges, and capex fatigue negatively affect both capex levels and investment priorities, providing operators with an opportunity to calibrate their RAN budgets to better align with historical capital intensity and RAN/capex ratios,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at the Dell’Oro Group. “So, the problem is not just lower capex levels. Operators are also adjusting the proportion of the capex allocated for RAN,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the 3Q 2024 RAN report:
- Worldwide RAN revenues are tracking below expectations, down 10 to 20 percent Y/Y in the first nine months.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers for the 1Q24-3Q24 period based on worldwide revenues are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers for the 1Q24-3Q24 based on worldwide revenues excluding China are Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE.
- Huawei and Ericsson’s worldwide RAN revenue share improved in the first nine months, while Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE lost some ground over the same period.
- Growth projections for 2025 are mostly unchanged. However, overall revenues have been revised downward to reflect the lower starting point. The worldwide RAN market is expected to advance at a low single-digit rate in 2025, underpinned by growth in North America and APAC, Excluding China. The Chinese RAN market is on track to decline in 2024, and the trajectory is expected to remain negative in 2025.