Mobile data traffic doubled between Q3 2011 and Q3 2012, and is expected to grow 12 times between 2012 and 2018, according to Ericsson’s newest Mobility Traffic and Market Report.
This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50 percent between 2012 and 2018. Smartphones already account for 40% of all device sales worldwide in Q3 2012 and the rapid mobile data growth forecast is tied largely to the growing video traffic to smartphones.
Based on the latest operator data, Ericsson finds that online video is already biggest contributor to mobile traffic volumes, constituting 25 percent of total smartphone traffic and 40 percent of total tablet traffic.
“Expectations of mobile-network quality have been elevated by the availability of smartphones and tablets that have changed the way we use the internet. Mobility is becoming an increasingly significant part of our daily lives; we always have devices within arm’s reach, allowing us instant access to information, entertainment and social interaction,” states Douglas Gilstrap, Senior Vice President and Head of Strategy at Ericsson.
Some highlights of the 28-page report:
- Total mobile subscriptions are expected to reach 6.6 billion by the end of 2012 and 9.3 billion by the end of 2018 (not including M2M).
- China accounted for about 35 percent of net additions during Q3 (+40m), followed by Brazil (+9m), Indonesia (+7m) and the Philippines (+5m).
- Global mobile penetration reached 91 percent in Q3 2012
- LTE is the fastest-developing system in the history of mobile communications in terms of buildout and uptake.
- Ericsson forecasts around 55 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2012, growing to an estimated 1.6 billion in 2018.
- WCDMA/HSPA networks continue to grow faster than LTE in terms of absolute numbers, adding 65 million subscriptions in Q3 2012 compared with 13 million for LTE.
- Total smartphone subscriptions will reach 1.1 billion by the end of 2012 and are expected to grow to 3.3 billion in 2018.
The full report is posted here: