Shipments of 400G coherent WDM volume starts to ramp this year, led by Ciena deployments and then followed by other suppliers six to nine months later, according to a newly-published, bi-annual Optical Applications Report report from Cignal AI, an independent research firm based in Boston. The introduction of small form factor 100G and 400G pluggable models will be a major catalyst.
“Cignal AI has close relationships with equipment and component manufacturers, as well as end users, and these relationships give us a unique insight into the optical equipment market. From this vantage point, we can forecast emerging technologies such as coherent 400G WDM usage,” states Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst for Cignal AI. “Pluggable 400G ZR modules should enter the market by 2019, and they will be the final nail in the coffin for 10G WDM networks.”
Some key findings:
- Both 100G and 400G coherent will be widely adopted at the edge of the network by the end of 2021.
- Cisco is growing 100G port deployments faster than all other vendors in the market.
- Equipment originally designed for DCI applications is rapidly evolving into applications outside the datacenter. Cignal AI is now using “Compact Modular for this class of products.
- Spending on compact modular equipment more than tripled in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year. Ciena, Cisco, and Infinera are the market share and technology leaders for this sector.
- Revenue for packet-OTN systems grew in the double digits in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year.
