Cisco Forecasts 39X Mobile Data Growth by 2014

Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2014, increasing 39 times between 2009 and 2014, according to its newly published Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast.

The study looked at current mobile data growth trends and the continued penetration of smartphones, along with predicted traffic demands from new categories of mobile devices, such as eReaders, portable video players, navigation units, portable gaming players, machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, picture frames, digital signage, etc.

Not surprisingly, mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured by the survey — a CAGR of 131 percent between 2009 and 2014. Cisco expects that almost 66 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2014.

Some highlights of the new Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast:

Global mobile data traffic has increased by 160 percent over the past year to 90 petabytes per month, or the equivalent of 23 million DVDs.

Global mobile data traffic today is growing today 2.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.
Smart phones and laptop air cards are expected to drive more than 90 percent of global mobile traffic by 2014. The average smartphone user generates 10 times the amount of traffic generated by the average non-smartphone user.
By 2014, more than 400 million of the world’s Internet users could access the network solely through a mobile connection.
The average mobile broadband connection generates 1.3 gigabytes of traffic per month-which is equivalent to about 650 MP3 music files. By 2014, the average mobile broadband connection is projected to generate 7 gigabytes of traffic per month-which is equivalent to about 3,500 MP3 music files.
The Middle East and Africa is expected to have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate, with a CAGR of 133 percent over the forecast period. Asia-Pacific is projected to have a 119 percent CAGR, followed by North America with a 117 percent CAGR. India is expected to the highest country mobile data traffic growth rate of any country, with a CAGR of 222 percent for the forecast period, followed by China with a 172 percent CAGR and South Africa with a 156 percent CAGR. In many countries, mobile operators are already offering mobile broadband services at prices and speeds comparable to fixed broadband which is accounting for high growth rates.