Dell’Oro Group forecasts that the global Radio Access Network (RAN) market will remain largely flat over the next decade, with 6G capital spending ramping up around 2030. The firm’s latest 6G Advanced Research Report underscores that while 6G research is accelerating, the long-term growth outlook for RAN remains subdued following two decades of minimal expansion.
According to Dell’Oro’s analysis, worldwide RAN revenues have grown at only a 1% CAGR since 2000 in nominal USD terms — and have declined when adjusted for inflation. The group expects the current 5G investment plateau to extend well into the late 2020s before utilization pressures in existing networks drive a new round of 6G deployments. These will primarily use Massive MIMO architectures operating in Sub-7GHz and centimeter-wave bands, leveraging existing macro grid infrastructure to control costs.
The report outlines baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios depending on data traffic growth and new use cases beyond mobile broadband, such as private wireless and fixed wireless access. Dell’Oro projects cumulative 6G RAN investments between 2029 and 2034 will represent 55–60% of total RAN capex in that period.
• RAN revenues have grown just 1% CAGR since 2000, flat to negative when adjusted for inflation
• 6G capex ramp projected to start around 2030
• 6G build-out expected to rely on existing macro grid using Sub-7GHz/cm-Wave Massive MIMO
• Cumulative 6G RAN investments (2029–2034) to represent 55–60% of total RAN capex
• Market risks include data traffic slowdown and limited diversification beyond MBB
“Our long-term position and characterization of this market have not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “There are opportunities to expand the RAN beyond traditional MBB use cases. At the same time, there are serious near-term risks tilted to the downside, particularly when considering the slowdown in data traffic.”
