Dell’Oro Group trimmed its forecast for the mobile core network (MCN) market, citing slower subscriber growth. Worldwide MCN 5-year growth is now forecasted at a 1 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), compared to our January 2023 forecast of 2 percent CAGR.
“We have reduced our forecast for the third consecutive time, primarily caused, this time, by an expected slowdown in subscriber growth,” said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Also, we reduced our projections for the Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) market to a 31 percent CAGR as commercially viable enterprise applications are taking much longer to realize than earlier hoped.
“Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are concerned about inflation, a possible recession, and political conflicts. They are therefore being restrained in their capital expenditures, another factor weighing in on a more conservative forecast. As we continue refining our count of MNOs that have launched 5G Standalone (5G SA) eMMB networks, we note that only 4 MNOs have commercially deployed new 5G SA networks compared to six in the first half of 2022,” Bolan added.
Additional highlights from the Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing 5-Year July 2023 Forecast Report:
- Year-over-year MCN revenue growth rates are projected to be flat in 2026 and turn negative in 2027.
- The North America and China regions are expected to have negative CAGRs, while Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific excluding China regions are expected to have the highest positive CAGRs.
