Following a 40 to 50 percent revenue growth between 2017 and 2021, the RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines, according to a new 6G report by Dell’Oro Group. While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality. In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies.
“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market. However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report:
- Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029
- 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 B by 2033
- Sub-7 GHz and cmWave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033
