Optical Vendors Should Widely Adopt Standards
While the long-term demand for telecommunications services is real, current business models of the industry are not sustainable, according to Eric Mentzer, VP and Chief Technology Officer, Intel Communication Group. In the face of changing industry rules, the greater adoption of standards is a way to succeed. Speaking at this week’s OFC conference in Atlanta, Mentzer drew parallels between the trucking and optical industries. Trucking in the US was heavily regulated until deregulation in 1979. It then went through a turbulent transition during which time investment in trucking equipment fell greatly. In the period that followed, market leader Mack, which was vertically integrated and built all of its parts in-house, lost market share. Meanwhile, Kenworth standardized and integrated parts from a wide variety of partners. This allowed the company to add value “up market” in areas of driver convenience and comfort and fuel economy savings. Eventually, Kenworth achieved a larger market share, and Mack ultimately adopted a standards approach to its products. Mentzer observed that while network traffic is growing, revenues are flat, and the only way for carriers to survive is by lowering capital and operating expenditures. This means it is time to standardize. The optical industry, he believes, is ripe for standards and can no longer afford “boutique technologies.”
Surviving in the Optics Business
The largest market for optics today is telecommunications. However, the optical industry needs to look beyond telecommunications if it is to survive and prosper, according to Kevin Kalkhoven of KPL Ventures and former CEO of JDS Uniphase. Kalkhoven said telecom applications for optics will grow no faster than the rate of overall GDP growth. Within telecom, he believes wireless, especially mobile phones and Wi-Fi, are the greatest opportunities in the near term. Kalkhoven argued that the optical industry must “think outside the box” to find new applications for its technology. Consumer oriented peripherals could be such a market opportunity. Kalkhoven encourages optics companies to work closely with the computer and electronics industries, and to explore display, sensor, material and medical science applications. He predicts only a small group of growing optics companies.
Increased Connectivity Can Create a Better World
The majority of the world does not have access to the information that we in the developed world take for granted, said Eduardo Gelbstein, Senior Special Fellow of the United Nations Institute for Training and Research and a contributor to the United Nations Information and Telecommunications (ICT) Task Force. He observed that 80% of the world’s population has never made a phone call, London has more Internet subscribers than all of Africa, and New York City has more telephones than rural Asia. Gelbstein suggested that there are two ways to view this situation: 1) There is a sea of knowledge that surrounds us all, but a digital divide cuts off 6 billion people from it for the time being. 2) The privileged live in an oasis of knowledge, and others will never reach the oasis. Gelbstein feels that this second view has historically been dangerous. Gelbstein also observed that “complex problems are never solved, they are only transformed.” Greater connectivity will take us into uncharted waters where we will face new questions. What happens to unique languages and culture? What happens when 6 billion people suddenly are connected, exposed to new ideas and knowledge, and have the ability to communicate directly with each other? While these changes raise some uncertainties, Gelbstein feels confident that they are much less risky than allowing the majority of the world’s people to live outside of the oasis of knowledge.
http://www.unicttaskforce.org/
- The UN and the ITU are holding a World Summit on the Information Society to develop a better understanding of the global information revolution and its impact on the international community. The first phase will be held from 10-12 December 2003, in Geneva, Switzerland and the second from 16-18 November 2005 in Tunis, Tunisia. For more information, see http://www.itu.int/wsis
