For the first time in its 23 years of forecasting for the information and communications technology (ICT) industry, the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) is projecting a 3.1 percent decline in revenue for the overall global ICT market in 2009 due to global economic conditions. In the U.S., revenue will suffer a 5.5 percent decline in 2009.
The TIA forecast is calling for continued weak conditions in 2010, with a modest 1.2 percent increase. However, the longer-term outlook is much brighter. Globally, TIA projects a strong rebound for the ICT industry after 2010, citing a 6.4 percent revenue growth in 2011 and a 7.9 percent increase in 2012.
For the U.S., telecommunications revenue is expected to decrease by 6.4 percent in the next two years, but rebound by 14.4 percent during 2011-12. The effects of the current Stimulus Package, which carves out investment dollars for broadband, will enable growth throughout the ICT industry and beyond.
“Broadband will be a driver for recovery in all areas, from healthcare IT to smart grid technology, public safety networks to education, as well as for businesses and consumers,” said Grant Seiffert, TIA President. “While TIA was instrumental in obtaining the $7.2 billion for broadband, other funding for energy, health IT and R&D will also spur recovery, especially in reviving some of the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost recently. The sum of increased productivity and revenue amongst all other industry segments whose growth broadband deployment contributes to is often underrated and perhaps immeasurable.”
Growing demand for high-volume data applications is driving all segments, say the independent, unbiased analysts at Wilkofsky Gruen Associates who help to develop the Market Review & Forecast. Despite the recession, TIA predicts that wireless and business data revenue will grow by 73 percent during the next four years to $110 billion in 2012 from $64 billion in 2008.
Further analysis shows that economic recovery during 2011-12 will be driven by pent-up demand for equipment upgrades. Growth in data traffic will strain network capacity and stimulate investment; availability of financing will fuel investment; and broadband growth will expand the platform for VoIP and IPTV.
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