By 2020, there will be 5.5 billion mobile users, representing 70 percent of the global population, according to the newly released Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2015 to 2020).
The study relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission speeds.
“With the ever-increasing billions of people and things that are being connected, mobility is the predominant medium that’s enabling today’s global digitization transformation,” said Doug Webster, vice president of service provider marketing, Cisco. “Future mobile innovations in cellular, such as 5G, and Wi-Fi solutions will be needed to further address new scale requirements, security concerns, and user demands. IoT advancements will continue to fuel tangible benefits for people, businesses, and societies.”
Some highlights:
- By 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach 30.6 exabytes per month—up from 3.7 exabytes in 2015.
- By 2020, annual global mobile data traffic will reach 366.8 exabytes—up from 44.2 exabytes in 2015.
- From 2015 to 2020, global mobile data traffic will grow two times faster than global fixed IP traffic.
- In 2015, 51 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2020, 55 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
- By 2020, over 75 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.
- There will be 11.6 billion mobile-ready devices/connections—including 8.5 billion personal mobile devices and 3.1 billion M2M connections –up from 7.9 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2015.
- Globally, 67 percent of mobile devices/connections will be ‘smart’ by 2020—up from 36 percent in 2015.
- Globally, 98 percent of mobile data traffic will come from ‘smart’ devices/connections by 2020—up from 89 percent in 2015.
- By 2020, M2M connections will represent 26.4 percent of mobile-connected devices—up from 7.7 percent in 2015.
- By 2020, M2M connections will generate 6.7 percent of total mobile traffic—up from 2.7 percent in 2015.
- Global wearables will grow six-fold from 2015 to 2020.
- By 2020, there will be more than 600 million wearable devices in use, up from nearly 97 million in 2015.
- By 2020, 4G connections will account for 72 percent of total mobile data traffic—up from 47 percent of total mobile data traffic in 2015.
- Globally, total Wi-Fi hotspots, including home spots, will grow 7X from 2015 (64 million) to 2020 (432 million). Globally, home spots will grow from 57 million (2015) to 423 million (2020).
- In 2015, monthly Wi-Fi offload traffic (3.9 exabytes) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (3.7 exabytes) for the first time.
- By 2020, 38.1 exabytes Wi-Fi offload traffic will be generated each month, continuing to exceed projected monthly mobile/cellular traffic (30.6 exabytes).
- By 2016, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoLTE in the number of minutes used per year.
- By 2018, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoIP in the number of minutes of used per year.
- By 2020, VoWi-Fi minutes of use will account for half – 53 percent – of all mobile IP voice traffic.
