The dividends once reaped from the 5G surge in RAN (Radio Access Network) revenues are now a distant memory, according to the analysis of the Dell’Oro Group.
Following a remarkable 40 percent to 50 percent increase between 2017 and 2021, global RAN revenues witnessed a second consecutive quarter of steep declines in 3Q 2023, primarily driven by reduced RAN investments in North America.
“The asynchronous nature of the 5G rollouts is in this case helping to cushion some of the blow in the US, though clearly not enough,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “This remarkable RAN/capex decline in the US market is partially offset by more favorable conditions elsewhere. Helping to explain the more upbeat sentiment outside North America is the 5G ramp in India, taken together with positive trends in the Middle East and Africa region. Also, MBB investments remain fairly elevated relative to pre-5G levels in most of the advanced 5G markets even in the post-peak period, with the exception of North America,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the 3Q 2023 RAN report:
- Top RAN suppliers in 3Q 2023 include Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- Ericsson and Nokia are gaining revenue share outside of North America.
- In the quarter, worldwide RAN revenues excluding North America recorded a third consecutive quarter of growth. The developments in the quarter are not impacting the RAN trajectory.
- The RAN market, having peaked in 2021, is on track to decline in 2023 and 2024.
- While the pace of the decline is expected to moderate in 2024, conditions will remain challenging as the pendulum swings towards the negative in India.
